All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
For a lesson in the pitfalls of market timing, consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose refusal of admission to Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. has gone from a blessing to a curse in the space of a year.
In February this year we wrote an article entitled A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession. Fast forward to the current situation, where opinion has shifted away from recession in favor of a soft-landing scenario. Does that same contrary analysis mean a recession is now more likely? The simple answer is no, not yet anyway!
Inflation averaged 1.8% in the ten years pre-COVID. Don’t expect inflation to average that low in the decade ahead. Not until the US finds a way to repeat the 1980s policy mix.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Measuring, anticipating and controlling the cost of healthcare are all difficult.
Touchstone Investments now has six actively managed ETFs. It seeks to bring its “distinctively active” mutual fund approach to meet advisors where they are focused.
How long will the Federal Reserve continue quantitative tightening (QT)? How large will its balance sheet be when QT ends? These important questions impact financial market liquidity, the anchor of asset values. We assess the likely path of QT in the years ahead.
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
VettaFi’s Equity Symposium is just over a week away and will provide advisors with free access to some of the most important thought leaders in the investment space.
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
Join VP of Research, Tim Urbanowicz, CFA and Director of Investment Strategy, Tom O’Shea, CFA as they delve into the investment process behind Innovator's seven strategic model portfolios, shedding light on how advisors can leverage these models to efficiently incorporate Defined Outcome ETFs™ into their business and drive scalability.
Why is now the time to consider investing in U.S. high yield bonds? At today’s yield levels, high yield bonds may generate income that few other fixed income exposures can match, with lower expected volatility than equities.1
Join JoAnne Bianco, CFA® and Ben Morris of BondBloxx for a discussion on opportunities with high yield bonds and why it’s essential to invest with precision in this asset class.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.
The labor movement is having a moment. In a tight employment market, there is money to be had — or profits to be more generously shared — and workers have gotten some big wins recently. Even reality TV stars and NFL running backs are getting into it.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.
Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).
A recent paper analyzing the correlation between stock and bond returns going back to 1875 suggests the relationship of the past quarter century is shifting in an uncertain inflationary environment. The results might stimulate some investors to rethink their portfolio allocations.
Expectations of central-bank interventions are helping to steady emerging-market currencies, even as traders adjust to a higher-for-longer regime for developed market interest rates.
The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades.
This year’s hottest options trade has found its way into the $7.4 trillion ETF arena for the first time, in the latest push by the financial industry to tap booming demand for stock investments with an income stream.
Recently, some clarity emerged on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) — two of the most important names in the semiconductor industry.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation has five really good dividend growth stocks for you to look at today with low debt and offer the potential to make good long-term rates of return and he thinks you’re going to find them very attractive.
A wide range of possible outcomes, a multitude of negative earners, and significantly less Wall Street coverage are just a few of the reasons investors in the small-cap universe should consider active managers who could steer them toward better results.
ETFs are the instrument of choice for millions of investors in the U.S. Through a single trade and for a relatively low price, an investor gains broad exposure to a market, sector or niche.
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
From the dense Amazon jungle to wide stretches of Malaysian palm oil plantations, agricultural practices have been stripping the world of vital forests for decades.
In this first episode, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the democratization of alternative investments and related topics with CAIA’s John Bowman.
Artificial Intelligence has been a category-killer among investment themes in the past year.
Its impact on the wealth management profession has been profound, from gravity-defying value creation on the stock market to optimizing the day-to-day operations of an advisory practice.
Every participant in financial services, in companies large or small, needs to embrace and integrate this powerful technology into its future, or risk falling behind.
My guest today, Valery Talma, will share his perspective on the state of the art in AI investment management and how advisors can serve their clients better with AI-powered strategies.
The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.
This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2022. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2022 published in earlier this month gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $75,980.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Join the experts at Global X and VettaFi to unpack how these versatile tools can be used in your portfolio.
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.
Investors look to macro signals to guide them on when to trade into international markets. These signals can be challenging to read, and those looking for discounted valuations or prolonged strength in the USD to reverse have been disappointed so far. That said, escaping a trading lens and looking long-term reveals plenty of opportunities. Join the experts at BNY Mellon and VettaFi for a webcast that unpacks an actively managed, rules-based approach to international equities.
Incorporating debt planning into your services helps your clients achieve a more comprehensive and sustainable financial future.
But what exactly are mental health days, and can they provide relief from burnout for you and your team?
A strong brand voice is the foundation of a firm's identity, fostering trust, credibility, and familiarity with clients and the public.
Many advisors aren’t familiar with financial phobias. They are common and can be debilitating.
Let me share some reminders about what needs to be in place for team members to thrive and stay inspired.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for August puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.67%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.75% average since the end of the Second World War for the third straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.67%.
Normalizing economic activity and the slow but steadily growing lag effect will result in a recession.
I've updated this series to include the August release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $49,010, down 8.1% from over 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
When I first read about the discovery of a vast new deposit of lithium in a volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border, I can’t say that I was surprised.
This week saw the release of another ode to the genius of Elon Musk, gushingly accepting his pronouncements at face value. Also, Walter Isaacson published a book about him.
Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.
A flurry of hedge funds, direct lenders and others are expecting a revival of the $1.3 trillion collateralized loan obligation market — and they want to be ready to reap the benefits when it happens.
Underlying US inflation ran at a faster-than-expected monthly pace in August, leaving the door open for additional interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The US government has been looking at ways to offload nearly $13 billion of mortgage bonds it amassed from failed lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, according to people with knowledge of the transactions.