Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated forecasts for their benchmark interest rate, due Wednesday, are looming as a key potential decider for a US Treasuries market at risk of a third straight year of losses.
If someone’s good enough to regularly trounce the market, they don’t want your money.
Forced deleveraging to be chaotic, causing a new Fed and banking panic.
In a significant turnaround for its aviation sector, Mexico’s air safety rating was upgraded from Category 2 back to Category 1 by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The upgrade could be a game-changer, offering opportunities for both Mexican airlines and their U.S. joint venture partners.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
As the artificial intelligence (AI) investment thesis continues evolving, one benefit accrued by investors will be that it becomes easier to identify winners and losers.
With actively managed ETFs, advisors and clients are willing to pay a premium relative to investing in an index-based approach. However, they want to be rewarded. In 2023, VettaFi is seeing this occur and is eager to share more about some of these active equity ETF strategies.
Soft consumer confidence and property-market woes are playing a large role in the slowdown of China’s economy.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Today, I am going to do something that I've never done. I am going to start a two-part series describing what is in my personal portfolio and why. Let me start by offering two caveats: This letter is in the “do as I say and not as I do” category.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, is mired in a slump. The decision in the Greyscale case stoked optimism that the SEC will eventually, finally approve spot bitcoin ETFs. Still, the bitcoin slump has erased all of the upside generated by the court ruling.
Now, is it an oversimplification to say that the upgrade to GDP growth is just down to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé? It is, to a degree, no matter how popular they are—and they are very popular indeed.
AI, with its data analysis and predictive power, can revolutionize investing. However, humans remain a crucial part of the process. Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions provides use cases into how different investors can harness AI to achieve their desired outcomes and workflows.
Bearish China traders have had the upper hand for most of the year. Still, easing deflation could give bulls a glimmer of hope.
The Energizer Bunny! That’s the term that best describes the U.S. economy.
Bridgewater Associates LP founder Ray Dalio said he doesn’t want to own bonds and prefers cash, highlighting difficulties investors face as global central banks try to manage inflation.
BlackRock and Human Interest have found that American workers earning less than the national average are not saving due to lack of access to saving tools. Broadening access requires an intuitive and automated approach to retirement savings.
Equity funds saw the biggest weekly inflow in 18 months amid growing investor confidence the US economy is headed for a soft landing, according to Bank of America Corp.
If held until the bond is redeemed (either by call or maturity), the annual yield earned for the life of a bond is known upfront at the time of purchase. Knowing the return on an investment upfront makes long-term financial planning a much easier task.
Hear from Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, about the state of the US economy. Get his perspective on the Federal Reserve’s next potential moves.
A host of Wall Street funds have minted profits riding the recent crypto fever after Grayscale Investments LLC snagged a big win over America’s top financial watchdog in its bid to create a US Bitcoin ETF.
Some investment trends seem obvious — people are watching more streaming movies, consumers like shopping online, and more people are buying electric cars. So why don’t these ETFs always work?
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to shy away from signaling that they’re done raising interest rates when they meet next week.
Municipals posted negative total returns amid rising interest rates. Issuance exceeded tempered expectations, while demand waned as performance struggled.
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
Industrial production increased for a second straight month in August, surpassing expectations yet again. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.4%, outpacing the projected 0.1% growth. Additionally, compared to one year ago, industrial production showed an increase of 0.25%.
The consensus is wrong, and the Fed has not engineered a “soft landing.” A recession is all but certain in the first half of next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
The September preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 67.7, down 1.8 (-2.6%) from the August final. This morning's reading was below the forecast of 69.1. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 20.4% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) of 85.1 and 19.4% below its geometric mean of 84.0.
Watching the new Tom Wolfe documentary, Radical Wolfe, I was reminded of the key role the author and journalist played in the development of quantitative finance.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 20.9 points from last month to 1.9. This morning's reading was better than the forecast of -10.0 and pushes the index back into expansion territory.
Americans are downbeat about the economy, even as inflation rates rapidly decline back toward more normal levels, the unemployment rate has held below 4% for the longest stretch since the late 1960s and economists race to raise their growth forecasts.
A resilient US economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to pencil in one more interest-rate hike this year and stay at the peak level next year for longer than previously expected, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
All week, stock traders have shrugged off everything from hot inflation data in the US to another recession-threatening hike in interest rates over in Europe.
For a lesson in the pitfalls of market timing, consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose refusal of admission to Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. has gone from a blessing to a curse in the space of a year.
In February this year we wrote an article entitled A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession. Fast forward to the current situation, where opinion has shifted away from recession in favor of a soft-landing scenario. Does that same contrary analysis mean a recession is now more likely? The simple answer is no, not yet anyway!
Inflation averaged 1.8% in the ten years pre-COVID. Don’t expect inflation to average that low in the decade ahead. Not until the US finds a way to repeat the 1980s policy mix.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Measuring, anticipating and controlling the cost of healthcare are all difficult.
Touchstone Investments now has six actively managed ETFs. It seeks to bring its “distinctively active” mutual fund approach to meet advisors where they are focused.
How long will the Federal Reserve continue quantitative tightening (QT)? How large will its balance sheet be when QT ends? These important questions impact financial market liquidity, the anchor of asset values. We assess the likely path of QT in the years ahead.
That’s a bold prediction in the title. I believe it will come true.
VettaFi’s Equity Symposium is just over a week away and will provide advisors with free access to some of the most important thought leaders in the investment space.
Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.
Join VP of Research, Tim Urbanowicz, CFA and Director of Investment Strategy, Tom O’Shea, CFA as they delve into the investment process behind Innovator's seven strategic model portfolios, shedding light on how advisors can leverage these models to efficiently incorporate Defined Outcome ETFs™ into their business and drive scalability.
Why is now the time to consider investing in U.S. high yield bonds? At today’s yield levels, high yield bonds may generate income that few other fixed income exposures can match, with lower expected volatility than equities.1
Join JoAnne Bianco, CFA® and Ben Morris of BondBloxx for a discussion on opportunities with high yield bonds and why it’s essential to invest with precision in this asset class.
Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.
The labor movement is having a moment. In a tight employment market, there is money to be had — or profits to be more generously shared — and workers have gotten some big wins recently. Even reality TV stars and NFL running backs are getting into it.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.
Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).