The UST yield curve has been inverted, but there is speculation about when it will “un-invert" and move out of negative territory.
After a fruitful career and plenty of practice paying taxes, you may feel prepared for the tax man in retirement. But a review of your post-retirement taxable income may yield some surprising insights.
With high yields and compelling opportunities, we think the muni market looks exceptionally attractive today.
Provisions in the SECURE 2.0 Act introduced new ways this year to avoid a 10% early withdrawal penalty from retirement accounts. Our Bill Cass explains the implications for savers.
Demand for alternatives has spotlighted convertible arbitrage for portfolio diversification and risk-adjusted returns, after decades of underappreciation. Advisors must understand these strategies to effectively guide clients in the evolving market.
The economy is off to a strong start in 2024, with a strong employment picture and the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 for the first time. But even with those tailwinds, questions about the economy and the markets remain as we head into the second half of 2024.
AI worked well in equity markets in the first half and could deliver for investors over the next six months.
For the 12 months ending July 3, the average return posted by the widely followed Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap 600 indexes was 8.3%.
No investor wants to miss the wave of a massive, transformational technology. Spot these big shifts early, and you have a chance at Nvidia-like returns.
The outlook for the Federal Reserve (Fed) through the first six months of 2024 has been a bit of a roller-coaster ride to say the least. While one could argue the overarching premise has been for rate cuts, it has certainly not been a smooth ride.
It’s an election year, which means you can expect to hear presidential candidates being asked about their plan for preventing Social Security from going bankrupt.
A strategic alignment within the workplace is an opportunity for financial advisors, employers and retirement savers seeking financial planning advice. See Kevin Murphy’s views on emerging trends in workplace savings.
Explore the complexities of the high-yield market through comprehensive insights from our experts.
An increasing number of investors believe that value investing might never again be successful. We think that is a strange conclusion because valuation is critical to every transaction in the economy. An economy cannot function properly without thoughtful value assessments. In our latest insight, we analyze the differences between value and growth investing over time and outline the generational opportunities that investors may be overlooking.
With so much uncertainty in the political landscape, investors may be nervous — and they may be reluctant to remain in the market. This is why an advisor's role as a behavioral coach is so important.
Municipal bonds posted their strongest June performance since 2019. The asset class outperformed amid improving seasonal supply-and-demand dynamics. Looking ahead, July has historically been the strongest performing month of the year.
The expectation of rate cuts is not only fueling news-sensitive trades in emerging markets equities, but also in bonds.
Investors continue to pile into bond funds, looking to add yield now before the Federal Reserve starts instituting rate cuts.
Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.
The world could be undergoing a transformation akin to past technological revolutions. But the speed, size and impact of that investment is highly uncertain. We think leaning into the transformation and adapting as the outlook changes will be key.
The global population has surpassed 8 billion and according to the United Nations, it is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050.¹ However, the rate of population growth is slowing and is expected to continue to decline. Seems counterintuitive, no?
Over the last four years, we have maintained that the U.S. middle-class consumer is on firmer ground than many believe. The first wave of inflation that seems to be receding is just that—the first wave of a set—and oil and gas companies are fundamentally well-positioned for the next decade.
While the temperatures were rising, the U.S. stock market continued its climb higher as well. The S&P 500 returned 3.5% and Emerging Market stocks delivered an impressive 3.9%. Bonds also returned positively in June.
Morgan Stanley recently discussed the outsized impact of fiscal policy as well as the U.S. dollar looking ahead.
Many investors hold a concentrated stock position that represents a large percentage—typically 10% to 20%—of their overall portfolio value. Let’s review the risks of concentrated positions and then survey some of the possible solutions.
What should equity investors look for to find companies with strong economic profits, backed by clear business advantages?
The China trade shock of the 1990s and 2000s is widely blamed for hollowing out the US manufacturing sector. But anyone who thinks that unwinding trade with China will not result in price increases and significant political backlash is in for a rude awakening.
Earnings season is just around the corner. It could prove critical to justifying the record rally we’ve seen thus far in 2024.
We think all signs point to the labor market as the oracle – personal consumption supports earnings upside.
VettaFi discusses the upcoming election and potential implications for the energy sector.
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
It’s inevitable. A recession is coming. Whether it gets here next month, next quarter, next year, or next decade will be continuously debated until it arrives. Yet, one thing that everyone will agree on is that we will have another recession eventually.
When researching what would be the companies most likely to benefit from the recent AI advancements, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, came up with 29 names.
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
Last week we had our quarterly live call for Yield Shark subscribers. We had some great conversations over the course of the hour. One of the major topics that came up was what will happen through the end of the year. Will we see a correction or a rotation? If so, when will this happen? And most important, how can we prepare?
The employment report from last Friday, in my view, was weak. Although the headline number came in slightly above expectations, the composition was troublesome, with more than 110k jobs subtracted from the last two months and private sector jobs lagging.
We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market.
The addition of Dell Technologies and Super Micro boosted the weighting to the technology sector. We also analyze changes to the value and growth indexes.
Investors may want to opt for a middle-ground solution for yield and rate risk with intermediate bond funds.
In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.
Wall Street analysts continue significantly lowering the earnings bar as we enter the Q2 reporting period. Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months.
Long-time readers know I have not been a fan of the Chevron deference. I think it was one of the worst decisions of the last century. I've been aware of it because I'm in a regulated business.
The reason I mention silver, oil and gold is because they were the top performing commodities in the first half of 2024. Let’s dive into what’s driving these trends and what they might mean for investors.
Despite narrow market concentration, we see opportunities in high-quality stocks that haven’t yet been rewarded.
Philanthropy is not a substitute for government action in areas like health, education, and the distribution of income and wealth, but it can advance public goods and improve human well-being. The key is to design institutions that deliver the reputational benefits that donors crave.
Tariffs do more harm than good to nations that impose them.
Having hit 31 record highs since January and up more than 15% year to date, the S&P 500 is off to its best start to the year since 2019 and the best start to an election year ever, driven by mega-cap tech stocks and artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds.
An extended period of calm means investors must be vigilant and not become complacent. However, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an impending volatility event.
The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives.
Rebalancing events help ensure benchmarks maintain exposure to companies within their targeted asset class or markets, but the rebalancing can also impact investment portfolios.
