Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.
Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?
With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.
After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.
Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.
If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
It’s widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, perhaps by as much as 50 basis points. That would potentially provide a much needed positive jolt to bonds and fixed income ETFs.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
With its current course leading only to economic stagnation, the EU must establish a vision for a more dynamic, productive future. Above all, Europeans must answer a simple but critical question: What should the EU look like – in terms of innovation, the economy, security, and resilience – in a decade?
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses because they allow them to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending on August 15th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.14% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 2.45%.
The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.
Stocks that offer artificial intelligence have been the hot ticket in the stock market – seeing their prices surge – many to astronomical heights. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will use FAST Graphs to see if he can locate some AI stocks that might not be so expensive, but his primary focus is going to be on Dell Technologies (DELL), as well as Dell’s competitors.
As recently as the beginning of this year the market pundits were predicting up to six Federal Reserve rate cuts to the short-term Federal Funds Rate. Shockingly, the pundits’ expectations have not come to fruition. Predictions based on the sentiment of the day fill the twenty-four-hour news cycle on multiple outlets.
This week marks the ‘unofficial’ end to 2Q24 earnings season – and aside from a few wobbles, it has been reasonably good. S&P 500 earnings growth came in at a solid 11.2% YoY pace – its best quarterly performance since 4Q21.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
I have received a lot of blowback from my recommendation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) drop the Fed Runds Rate by 150 basis points (bps) over the next several weeks. Certainly, the data has come in stronger than I (and many others) have anticipated. Particularly surprising was the drop in jobless claims, now nearer to the midpoint of my 200k to 240k range after breaching the upper limit.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
U.S. consumer-price gains eased to 2.9% in July—the lowest increase since 2021
Unfortunately, when it comes to the government, what’s old is sometimes new again.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
The current economic landscape is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for higher inflation continues to pose a real threat to market stability.
June’s rate of inflation showed, for the first time in several years, an important slowdown in shelter costs, something that economists, us included, have been expecting for a very long time but had not materialized.
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
GMO has posted a new 7-Year Asset Class Forecast.
The recent U.S. Treasury yield rally is compared to a similar rally in Q4 2023, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Stocks that offer artificial intelligence have been the hot ticket in the stock market – seeing their prices surge – many to astronomical heights.
As much as my two-pronged dividend strategy works in all markets, we still need to acknowledge that politics influences the market. Sometimes it’s a tangible impact like big swings in the price of oil. Other times it’s just investor sentiment moving the market.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
It’s a good time to check on consumer health.
We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets.
The BlackRock Flexible Income ETF (BINC) launched less than 15 months ago and is already approaching $4 billion in AUM.
Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.
For years, the emphasis within fixed income investing has been to seek security-specific alpha in an illiquid bond market where no single security significantly impacts portfolio returns.
This year, the bears have asserted themselves after the bulls controlled the first half. Shares of companies that recently announced stock splits are well off their highs, generally not benefiting from the historical trend of outperformance.
